@article {1807696, title = {Currency Wars and Monetary Regime Disintegration}, year = {2024}, abstract = { The Great Depression is the canonical case of a widespread currency war, with more than 70 countries devaluing between 1929 and 1936. Existing scholarship, however, has largely focused on the beggar-thy-neighbor effects of devaluations rather than their collective effect on the disintegration of the interwar gold standard. We use newly-compiled, high-frequency bilateral trade data and gravity models that account for when and whether trade partners had devalued to identify the effects of the currency war on global trade. Our empirical estimates show that a country{\textquoteright}s trade was reduced by more than 21\% following devaluation relative to its trade partners that had yet to devalue. This negative and statistically significant decline in trade suggests that the currency war destroyed the trade-enhancing benefits of the global monetary standard, ending regime coordination and increasing trade frictions. }, author = {Mitchener, Kris James and Wandschneider, Kirsten} } @article {1804706, title = {Contingent Advantage? Sovereign Borrowing, Democratic Institutions and Global Capital Cycles}, journal = {British Journal of Political Science}, volume = {51}, year = {2024}, pages = {353{\textendash} 373}, abstract = { ABSTRACT How do domestic and global factors shape governments{\textquoteright} capacity to issue debt in primary capital markets? Consistent with the {\textquoteleft}democratic advantage{\textquoteright}, we identify domestic institutional mechanisms, including executive constraints and policy transparency, that facilitate debt issuance rather than electoral events. Most importantly, we argue that the democratic advantage is contingent: investors{\textquoteright} attention to domestic politics varies with conditions in global capital markets. When global financial liquidity is low, investors are risk-averse, and political risk constrains governments{\textquoteright} capacity to borrow. But when global markets are flush, investors are risk-tolerant and less sensitive to political risk. We support our argument with new data on 245,000 government bond issues in primary capital markets {\textendash} the point at which governments{\textquoteright} costs of market access matter most {\textendash} for 131 sovereign issuers (1990{\textendash}2016). In doing so, we highlight the role of systemic factors, which are under-appreciated in much {\textquoteleft}open economy politics{\textquoteright} research, in determining access to capital markets. }, author = {Cameron Ballard-Rosa and Layna Mosley and Wellhausen, Rachel L} } @article {1804686, title = {The Structure of American Income Tax Policy Preferences}, journal = {The Journal of Politics}, volume = {79}, number = {1}, year = {2024}, pages = {1-16}, author = {Cameron Ballard-Rosa and Lucy Martin and Kenneth Scheve} } @article {1804681, title = {Hungry for Change: Urban Bias and Autocratic Sovereign Default }, journal = {International Organization}, volume = {70}, number = {02}, year = {2024}, pages = {313 - 346}, abstract = { What drives autocrats to default on their sovereign debt? This article de- velops the first theory of sovereign debt default in autocracies that explicitly investigates survival incentives of political actors in nondemocracies. Self-interested elites, fearful of threats to their tenure because of urban unrest, may be willing to endure the long-term borrowing costs that defaulting creates rather than risk the short-term survival costs of removing cheap food policies for urban consumers. I test my main claims that both ur- banization and food imports should be associated with greater likelihood of autocratic default using panel data covering forty-three countries over fifty years, finding that autoc- racies that are more reliant on imported food and that are more urbanized are significantly more likely to be in default on their external sovereign debt. I emphasize the regime- contingent nature of these effects by demonstrating that they are reversed when consid- ering democratic sovereign default. I also substantiate the mechanisms put forward in my theory through illustrative historical cases of sovereign debt default in Zambia and Peru, in which I demonstrate that fear of urban unrest in the face of rapidly increasing food prices did indeed drive autocratic elites to default on international debt obligations. In addition to providing the first political theory of debt default in autocracies, the article introduces two robust predictors of autocratic default that have been overlooked in previous work, and highlights the importance of urban-rural dynamics in nondemocratic regimes. }, url = {http://journals.cambridge.org/abstract_S0020818315000363}, author = {Cameron Ballard-Rosa} } @article {1804346, title = {Understanding of Trade}, year = {2024}, abstract = {This paper sheds new light on two questions: How do people perceive and understand trade and trade policy, and what shapes their support for different trade policies? Despite extensive research documenting the efficiency gains from trade and its distributional impacts on different groups of workers, firms, and consumers, we still need to uncover how people perceive these various effects of trade. Trade involves many trade-offs,. When forming their views on trade policy, people have to balance their roles as consumers and workers, consider both personal and broader economic and societal impacts, and evaluate concerns of efficiency and equity. Which of these considerations matters most? Using new large-scale surveys and experiments, I highlight three main findings. First, while earlier work has established that consumer gains from trade are diffuse and job losses are concentrated, I directly show the impact of these two considerations on people{\textquoteright}s views about trade. I find that perceived job risks matter more for policy views than perceived consumer gains. Second, beyond their own material self-interest, people care about the broader efficiency gains and adverse distributional consequences from trade. Support for free trade is best predicted by the belief that trade generates efficiency gains. Concerns about the adverse distributional consequences of trade do not necessarily reduce support for free trade: instead, they increase support for compensatory redistribution. These results also highlight the importance of compensatory redistribution as an indissociable part of trade policy in people{\textquoteright}s minds. Third, personal exposure to trade shapes policy views in two ways: directly (through self-interest) and indirectly by changing people{\textquoteright}s perceptions of trade{\textquoteright}s broader efficiency and distributional implications.}, url = { https://socialeconomicslab.org/research/working-papers/understanding-of-trade/}, author = {Stefanie Stantcheva} } @article {1804341, title = {Fighting Climate Change: International Attitudes toward Climate Policies}, year = {2024}, abstract = { This paper studies how people across the world perceive and understand climate change and climate policies, which factors determine their support for climate action, and what type of information shifts their policy views. We design and run new large- scale surveys on more than 40,000 respondents in 20 countries, covering the major greenhouse gas emitters in developed and developing economies. We thus provide new, comprehensive, international microdata on people{\textquoteright}s perceptions, understanding, and policy views related to climate change, combined with detailed background information on their socioeconomic characteristics, energy use, and lifestyles. We show that, across countries, support for climate policies hinges on three key perceptions centered around the effectiveness of the policies in reducing emissions (effectiveness concerns), their distributional impacts on lower-income households (inequality concerns), and their impact on the respondents{\textquoteright} household (self-interest). In the experimental part, we show randomly selected subsamples pedagogical videos on either the impacts of climate change in their country or how major climate policies work {\textendash} their effectiveness in reducing emissions and their distributional implications. Explaining how policies work and who can benefit from them is critical to fostering policy support, whereas simply informing people about climate change{\textquoteright}s impacts is ineffective. }, url = {https://socialeconomicslab.org/research/working-papers/fighting-climate-change-international-attitudes-toward-climate-policies/}, author = {Antoine Dechezlepr{\^e}tre and Adrien Fabre and Tobias Kruse and Bluebery Planterose and Ana Sanchez Chico and Stefanie Stantcheva} } @article {1804196, title = {The Smoot-Hawley Trade War}, journal = {The Economic Journal}, volume = {132}, number = {647}, year = {2024}, pages = {2500{\textendash}2533}, abstract = {We document the outbreak of a trade war after the United States adopted the Smoot-Hawley tariff in June 1930. U.S. trade partners initially protested, with many eventually choosing to retaliate with tariffs. Using a new quarterly dataset on bilateral trade for ninety-nine countries, we show that U.S. exports to retaliators fell by 28\%{\textendash}32\%. Using a second new dataset on U.S. exports at the product level, we find that the most important U.S. exports to retaliating markets were particularly affected, suggesting a possible mechanism whereby the United States was targeted despite most-favoured-nation obligations. The retaliators{\textquoteright} welfare gains from trade fell by 8\%{\textendash}16\%.}, url = {https://academic.oup.com/ej/article/132/647/2500/6519264}, author = {Mitchener, Kris James and O{\textquoteright}Rourke, Kevin Hjortshoj and Wandschneider, Kirsten} } @article {1669716, title = {The Story of the Real Exchange Rate}, journal = {Annual Review of Economics}, volume = {13}, number = {Aug. 2021}, year = {2023}, pages = {423-455}, abstract = { The real exchange rate (RER) measures relative price levels across countries, capturing deviations from purchasing power parity (PPP). RER is a key variable in international macroeconomic models as it is central to equilibrium conditions in both goods and asset markets. It is also one of the most starkly-behaved variables empirically, tightly co-moving with the nominal exchange rate and virtually uncorrelated with most other macroeco- nomic variables, nominal or real. This survey lays out an equilibrium framework of RER determination, focusing separately on each building block and discussing corresponding empirical evidence. We emphasize home bias and incomplete pass-through into prices with expenditure switching and goods market clearing, imperfect international risk shar- ing, country budget constraint and monetary policy regime. We show that RER is in- herently a general-equilibrium variable, which depends on the full model structure and policy regime, and therefore partial theories like PPP are insufficient to explain it. We also discuss issues of stationarity and predictability of exchange rates. }, author = {Itskhoki, Oleg} } @article {1669711, title = {Oleg Itskhoki on Exchange Rate Puzzles and Policies }, journal = {Economic Dynamics Research Agenda}, volume = {23}, number = {2}, year = {2023}, author = {Itskhoki, Oleg} } @article {1669706, title = {Oleg Itskhoki on Exchange Rate Puzzles and Policies }, journal = {Economic Dynamics Research Agenda}, volume = {23}, number = {2}, year = {2023}, author = {Itskhoki, Oleg} } @article {1669701, title = {Oleg Itskhoki on Exchange Rate Puzzles and Policies }, journal = {Economic Dynamics Research Agenda}, volume = {23}, number = {2}, year = {2023}, author = {Itskhoki, Oleg} } @article {1669696, title = {Oleg Itskhoki on Exchange Rate Puzzles and Policies }, journal = {Economic Dynamics Research Agenda}, volume = {23}, number = {2}, year = {2023}, author = {Itskhoki, Oleg} } @article {1669691, title = {Oleg Itskhoki on Exchange Rate Puzzles and Policies }, journal = {Economic Dynamics Research Agenda}, volume = {23}, number = {2}, year = {2023}, author = {Itskhoki, Oleg} } @article {1669686, title = {Undisclosed Debt Sustainability}, journal = {AEA PAPERS AND PROCEEDINGS}, volume = {112}, number = {May 2022}, year = {2023}, pages = {521-525}, author = {Alfaro, Laura and Kanczuk, Fabio} } @unpublished {1669681, title = {Can Evidence-Based Information Shift Preferences Towards Trade Policy?}, year = {2023}, author = {Alfaro, Laura and Maggie X. Chen and Davin Chor} } @article {1668286, title = {Low-Skill Products by High-Skill Workers: The Distributive Effects of Trade in Emerging and Developing Countries }, journal = {Comparative Political Studies}, volume = {Vol. 0(0)}, year = {2023}, pages = {1-36}, abstract = { In developing countries, trade is increasingly associated with greater returns to high-skilled labor and rising inequality. These empirical patterns are at odds with canonical models of trade in the developing world. What does this mean for the political economy of trade in these countries? We argue that although developing countries have a comparative advantage in low-skill products, these are produced by workers that are relatively high-skilled compared to their peers. Trade and global production benefit relatively skilled workers, particularly those exposed to exports and inward foreign direct investment in manufacturing. Our argument offers insight into why relatively skilled workers are most supportive of free trade and why inequality is rising in developing countries. We examine micro- and macro-level implications of our argument using cross-national survey data on policy preferences and aggregate data on trade and inequality. The findings have important implications for the political economy of trade and global production in developing countries. }, author = {Erica Owen and Irene Men{\'e}ndez Gonz{\'a}lez and Walter, Stefanie} } @inbook {1668285, title = {Labor and Trade Protection in Comparative Perspective }, booktitle = {OXFORD RESEARCH ENCYCLOPEDIA, POLITICS }, year = {2023}, publisher = {Oxford University Press}, organization = {Oxford University Press}, address = {Oxford}, author = {Erica Owen and Rena Sung} } @article {1668282, title = {Occupation and the Political Economy of Trade: Job Routineness, Offshorability, and Protectionist Sentiment }, journal = {International Organization}, volume = {71}, number = {Fall 2017}, year = {2023}, pages = {665-699}, abstract = { The recent backlash against globalization in many advanced economies raises questions about the source of this protectionist sentiment. Traditional accounts generally attribute the welfare consequences of trade to skill level or industry character- istics, or instead emphasize the nonmaterial determinants of support for openness. Consequently, we know little about how a major labor market characteristic{\textemdash}occupa- tion{\textemdash}shapes both the distributional consequences of and preferences toward trade open- ness. We propose and test a new theory of trade policy preferences based on occupation characteristics. Drawing from the tasks literature in economics, we argue that occupation characteristics are a key determinant of how trade affects workers and thus individuals{\textquoteright} trade preferences. Our theory suggests that, in advanced economies, individuals in routine-task-intensive occupations will be negatively affected by trade, and thus more protectionist. This relationship will increase in the degree to which occupation job tasks can be provided from a distance (i.e., offshorable). We find support for our theory using data from the 2003 and 2013 International Social Survey Programme in high-income democracies. Our results suggest that the occupational characteristics of routineness and offshorability are important determinants of trade preferences, offering additional understanding of the sources of protectionist sentiment even after controlling for labor market characteristics suggested by conventional wisdom. }, author = {Erica Owen and Noel P. Johnson} } @newspaperarticle {1633443, title = {Bad News About the Good Inflation News }, journal = {Wall Street Journal, March 6, 2022}, year = {2022}, author = {Jason Furman} } @article {1633222, title = {Lessons of Keynes{\textquoteright}s Economic Consequences in a Turbulent Century, CEPR Discussion Paper DP16610, CE}, year = {2022}, abstract = { Just over a century old, John Maynard Keynes{\textquoteright}s The Economic Consequences of the Peace (1919) remains a seminal document of the twentieth century. At the time, the book was a prescient analysis of political events to come. In the decades that followed, this still controversial text became an essential ingredient in the unfolding of history. In this essay, we review the arc of experience since 1919 from the perspective of Keynes{\textquoteright}s influence and his changing understanding of economics, politics, and geopolitics. We identify how he, his ideas, and this text became key reference points during times of turbulence as actors sought to manage a range of shocks. Near the end of his life, Keynes would play a central role in planning the world economy{\textquoteright}s reconstruction after World War II. We argue that the {\textquotedblleft}global order{\textquotedblright} that evolved since then, marked by increasingly polarized societies, leaves the community of nations ill prepared to provide key global public goods or to counter critical collective threats. }, author = {Patricia Clavin and Giancarlo Corsetti and Maurice Obstfeld and Adam Tooze} } @newspaperarticle {1632912, title = {Four Reasons to Keep Worrying About Inflation}, journal = {Wall Street Journal, Jan. 13, 2022}, year = {2022}, author = {Jason Furman} } @presentation {1632874, title = {Why Did (Almost) Nobody See it Coming and What Does That Mean for What{\textquoteright}s Next?}, journal = {Macroeconomics Policy Seminar February 8, 2022}, year = {2022}, author = {Jason Furman} } @conference {1632873, title = {What the Federal Reserve Should Do Now: An Elaboration}, booktitle = {Peterson Institute for International Economics, November 18, 2021}, year = {2022}, url = {https://www.piie.com/sites/default/files/documents/furman-2021-11-17.pdf}, author = {Jason Furman} } @newspaperarticle {1632872, title = {Four Reasons to Worry About Inflation}, journal = {Wall Street Journal}, year = {2022}, url = {https://conferences.wcfia.harvard.edu/peif/publications$\#$overlay=peif/node/add/biblio}, author = {Jason Furman} } @article {1632660, title = {The Saving Glut of the Rich *}, year = {2022}, abstract = {There has been a large rise in savings by Americans in the top 1\% of the income or wealth distribution over the past 40 years, which we call the saving glut of the rich. Instead of financing investment, this saving glut has been associated with dissaving by the non-rich and dissaving by the government. An unveiling of the financial sector reveals that rich households have accumulated substantial financial assets that are direct claims on U.S. government and household debt. State-level analysis shows that the rise in top income shares has been important in generating the rise in savings by the rich.}, author = {Mian, Atif and Ludwig Straub and Amir Suf} } @article {1632659, title = { {\textquotedblleft}Indebted Demand.{\textquotedblright} }, journal = {Quarterly Journal of Economics}, volume = {11/2021}, year = {2022}, pages = {2243{\textendash}2307}, abstract = {We propose a theory of indebted demand, capturing the idea that large debt burdens lower aggregate demand, and thus the natural rate of interest. At the core of the theory is the simple yet underappreciated observation that borrowers and savers differ in their marginal propensities to save out of permanent income. Embedding this insight in a two-agent perpetual-youth model, we find that recent trends in income inequality and financial deregulation lead to indebted household demand, pushing down the natural rate of interest. Moreover, popular expansionary policies{\textemdash}such as accommodative monetary policy{\textemdash}generate a debt-financed short-run boom at the expense of indebted demand in the future. When demand is sufficiently indebted, the economy gets stuck in a debt-driven liquidity trap, or debt trap. Escaping a debt trap requires consideration of less conventional macroeconomic policies, such as those focused on redistribution or those reducing the structural sources of high inequality.}, author = {Mian, Atif and Ludwig Straub and Amir Sufi.} } @inbook {1632438, title = {Chapter 5: Foreign Firms and their Diplomats in Ukraine.}, booktitle = {The Shield of Nationality: When Governments Break Contracts with Foreign Firms. 2015}, year = {2022}, pages = {44 pp}, publisher = {Cambridge University Press}, organization = {Cambridge University Press}, address = {Cambridge}, author = {Rachel L. Wellhausen} } @inbook {1632435, title = { Chapter 1: Introduction. In: The Shield of Nationality: When Governments Break Contracts with Foreign Firms.}, booktitle = {The Shield of Nationality: When Governments Break Contracts with Foreign Firms.}, year = {2022}, pages = {14 pp}, publisher = {Cambridge University Press}, organization = {Cambridge University Press}, address = {Cambridge}, author = {Wellhausen, Rachel L} } @article {1632433, title = { "Political Risk and International Investment Law." }, journal = {Annual Review of Political Science }, year = {2022}, pages = {1-23}, abstract = { International investment law provides a means for states to mitigate political risks that foreign investors face inside their borders. Its status quo includes thousands of international investment agreements (IIAs) and Investor{\textendash}State Dispute Settlement (ISDS), a dispute resolution mechanism in which for- eign, private investors sue host states in ad hoc international tribunals in pursuit of monetary compensation for property rights violations. In this re- view, we survey the vast contemporary literature on this regime to evidence the ways in which scholars have challenged the purported original goals of international investment law and its distributional consequences. In light of this literature{\textquoteright}s accomplishments, we highlight opportunities for a refocusing of international relations scholars{\textquoteright} research agenda on dynamics of continu- ity and change in the regime. The status quo in international investment law is fragile, and, in our view, the regime is on the brink of a major shift toward prioritizing state sovereignty well above political risk mitigation. }, url = {https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-polisci-051120- 014429}, author = {Moehlecke, Carolina and Rachel L. Wellhausen} } @article {1632180, title = {CULTURE, INSTITUTIONS AND SOCIAL EQUILIBRIA: A FRAMEWORK}, year = {2022}, abstract = {This paper proposes a new framework for studying the interplay between culture and institutions. We follow the recent sociology literature and interpret culture as a \repertoire", which allows rich cultural responses to changes in the environment and shifts in political power. Specifically, we start with a culture set, which consists of attributes and the feasible connections between them. Combinations of attributes produce cultural configurations, which provide meaning, interpretation and justification for individual and group actions. Cultural figurations also legitimize and support different institutional arrangements. Culture matters as it shapes the set of feasible cultural figurations and via this channel institutions. Yet, changes in politics and institutions can cause a rewiring of existing attributes, generating very different cultural configurations. Cultural persistence may result from the dynamics of political and economic factors - rather than being a consequence of an unchanging culture. We distinguish cultures by how fluid they are - whereby more fluid cultures allow a richer set of cultural configurations. Fluidity in turn depends on how specific (vs. abstract) and entangled (vs. free-standing) attributes in a culture set are. We illustrate these ideas using examples from African, England, China, the Islamic world, the Indian caste system and the Crow. In all cases, our interpretation highlights that culture becomes more of a constraint when it is less fluid (more hardwired), for example because its attributes are more specific or entangled. We also emphasize that less fluid cultures are not necessarily "bad cultures", and may create a range of benefits, though they may reduce the responsiveness of culture to changing circumstances. In many instances, including in the African, Chinese and English cases, we show that there is a lot of fluidity and very different, almost diametrically-opposed, cultural configurations are feasible, often compete with each other for acceptance and can gain the upper hand depending on political factors.}, url = {https://www.nber.org/papers/w28832}, author = {Acemoglu, Daron and Robinson, James A.} } @conference {1630945, title = {The International Financial System after COVID-19, December 14, 2021; updated February 10, 2022}, booktitle = {Korea Institute of Finance, {\textquotedblleft}Prospects of the Global Economy after COVID-19: Implications for Korea.}, year = {2022}, abstract = { In March of 2020, international markets seized up with a violence unequaled since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) nearly a dozen years before. As economies around the world locked down in the face of the potentially deadly but completely novel SARS-CoV-2 virus, stock markets fell, firms and governments scrambled for cash, liquidity strains emerged even in the market for U.S. Treasurys, and capital flows to emerging and developing economies (EMDEs) reversed violently. This paper reviews the evolution of global financial markets since the GFC, changes in academic thinking about these markets{\textquoteright} domestic impacts, the strains seen during the COVID-19 crisis, and perils that may lie ahead. A key theme is that stability will be enhanced if the global community embraces reforms that elevate market resilience, rather than depending on skillful policymakers wielding aggressive but ad hoc policy interventions to ride to the rescue again. Keywords: COVID-19 crisis, emerging markets, capital flows, international finance, global financial cycle, U.S. dollar, Korean economy JEL Codes: E58, F32, F33, F36, F42, F44 }, author = {Maurice Obstfeld} } @article {1630943, title = {An Uneven Global Rebound Will Challenge Emerging-Market and Developing Economies}, journal = {PIIE Policy Brief 21-21. Washington: Peterson Institute for International Economics.}, volume = {October}, year = {2022}, pages = {1-12}, author = {Maurice Obstfeld} } @article {1490588, title = {For Better or Worse, Has Globalization Peaked? Understanding Global Integration}, year = {2020}, author = {Catherine L Mann} } @newspaperarticle {1490584, title = {"Will Coronavirus Trigger a Global Recession?"}, journal = {The Guardian, February 26, 2020}, volume = {Feb 26, 2020}, year = {2020}, author = {Frankel, Jeffrey} } @article {1489745, title = {Globalization and Nationalism: Retrospect and Prospect}, year = {2020}, author = {Maurice Obstfeld} } @inbook {1486686, title = {The Narrow Corridor: States, Societies, and the Fate of Liberty, Chapters 1 \&2 }, year = {2020}, publisher = {Penguin Press}, organization = {Penguin Press}, address = {New York}, author = {Acemoglu, Daron and James Robinson} } @article {1485284, title = {Indebted Demand}, year = {2020}, author = {Mian, Atif and Ludwig Straub and Sufi, Amir} } @article {1485283, title = {The Saving Glut of the Rich and the Rise in Household Debt }, year = {2020}, author = {Mian, Atif and Ludwig Straub and Sufi, Amir} } @article {1484432, title = { "Under One Roof: Supply Chains and the Protection of Foreign Investment." }, journal = {American Political Science Review }, volume = {110}, number = {(1)}, year = {2020}, pages = {31-51}, author = {Leslie Johns and Rachel L. Wellhausen} } @article {1484431, title = { "International Investment Law and Foreign Direct Reinvestment." }, journal = {International Organization }, volume = {73 }, number = {(4)}, year = {2020}, pages = {839-858}, author = {Rachel L. Wellhausen} } @inbook {1484429, title = {The Shield of Nationality: When Governments Break Contracts with Foreign Firms. Cambridge University Press. (Chapters 1, 2, and 3)}, year = {2020}, author = {Rachel L. Wellhausen} } @book {1423566, title = {Controlling Institutions: International Organizations and the Global Economy}, year = {2019}, publisher = {Camrbidge University Press}, organization = {Camrbidge University Press}, address = {Cambridge}, author = {Randall W. Stone} } @article {1423565, title = {The Scope of IFM Conditionality}, journal = {International Organization}, volume = {62}, year = {2019}, pages = {589-620}, author = {Randall W. Stone} } @article {1423564, title = {The Political Economy of IMF Lending in Africa}, journal = {American Political Science Review}, volume = {98}, number = {4}, year = {2019}, pages = {577-591}, author = {Randall W. Stone} } @inbook {1423563, title = {Chapter Two:The International Monetary Fund and the Post-Communist Transition}, booktitle = {Lending Credibility}, year = {2019}, publisher = {Princeton University Press}, organization = {Princeton University Press}, address = {Princeton and Oxford}, author = {Randall W. Stone} } @article {1423559, title = {Corporate Influence in World Bank Lending}, journal = {The Journal of Politics}, volume = {80}, number = {1}, year = {2019}, pages = {103-118}, author = {Rabia Malik and Randall W. Stone} } @article {1423558, title = {Mixed Signals: IMF Lending and Capital Markets}, journal = {B.J.Pol.S}, volume = {47}, year = {2019}, pages = {329{\textendash}349}, author = {Terrence Chapman and Songying Fang and Li, Xin and Randal W. Stone} } @article {1422843, title = {Understanding Current US Trade Policy Through the Lens of History}, journal = {Macroeconomic Review}, volume = {XVII}, number = {2}, year = {2019}, author = {Douglas A. Irwin} } @article {1419583, title = {Leverage over the Life Cycle and Implications for Firm Growth and Shock Responsiveness}, year = {2019}, url = {http://econweb.umd.edu/~kalemli/assets/workingpapers/leverage_lifecycle_oct28.pdf}, author = {Emin Dinlersoz and Sebnem Kalemli-{\"O}zcan and Henry Hyatt and Veronika Penciakova} } @article {1419581, title = {International Spillovers and Local Credit Cycles}, year = {2019}, url = {http://econweb.umd.edu/~kalemli/assets/workingpapers/dGKOUB_InternationalSpilloversCreditCycles_sep11.pdf}, author = {Julian di Giovanni and Sebnem Kalemli-{\"O}zcan and Mehmet Fatih Ulu and Yusuf Soner Baskaya} } @article {1419578, title = {Debt Overhang, Rollover Risk, and Corporate Investment: Evidence from the European Crisis}, year = {2019}, url = {http://econweb.umd.edu/~kalemli/assets/workingpapers/overhang_nov11_18.pdf}, author = {Sebnem Kalemli-{\"O}zcan and Laeven, Luc and David Moreno} } @article {1419574, title = {Leverage across firms, banks, and countries}, journal = {Journal of International Economics}, volume = {88}, year = {2019}, pages = {284{\textendash}298}, url = {http://econweb.umd.edu/~kalemli/assets/publications/leverage2012jie.pdf}, author = {Sebnem Kalemli-{\"O}zcan and Bent Sorensen and Sevcan Yesiltas} } @article {1419573, title = {Capital Allocation and Productivity in South Europe }, journal = {The Quarterly Journal of Economics}, year = {2019}, pages = {1915-1967}, url = {http://econweb.umd.edu/~kalemli/assets/publications/Gopinath\%20et\%20al\%20(2019)_QJE_Capital\%20Allocation\%20and\%20Productivity\%20in\%20South\%20Europe.pdf}, author = {Gopinath, Gita and Sebnem Kalemi-{\"O}zcan and Karabarbounis, Loukas and Carolina Villegas-Sanchez} } @article {1300043, title = {The Political Consequences of Economic Shocks. Evidence from Poland}, journal = { CIS Working Paper Series No.97. Zurich: ETH and University of Zurich}, year = {2018}, author = {John Ahlquist and Copelovitch, Mark and Walter, Stefanie} } @article {1300042, title = {Keeping the Euro at Any Cost? Explaining Preferences for Euro Membership in Greece.}, journal = {Paper presented at European Political Science Association Meeting 2017, Milano.}, year = {2018}, author = {Dinas, Elias and Jurado, Ignacio and Konstantinidis, Nikitas and Walter, Stefanie} } @article {1300041, title = {Understanding the Political Economy of the Eurozone Crisis.}, journal = {Annual Review of Political Science}, volume = {20(1)}, number = {2017}, year = {2018}, pages = {371{\textendash}90}, author = {Frieden, Jeffry and Walter, Stefanie} } @article {1300040, title = {Crisis Politics in Europe: Why Austerity Is Easier to Implement in Some Countries Than in Others}, journal = {Comparative Political Studies}, volume = {Vol. 49(7)}, number = {2016}, year = {2018}, pages = {841-873}, author = {Walter, Stefanie} } @article {1299250, title = {Macroprudential policy under high capital mobility: policy implications from an academic perspective}, journal = {Journal of the Japanese and International Economies}, volume = {42(2016)}, year = {2018}, pages = {162-172}, author = {Charles Engel} } @article {1299248, title = {Exchange Rate Policies}, journal = {Staff Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas}, volume = {No.8}, number = {November 2009}, year = {2018}, author = {Charles Engel} } @article {1299247, title = {International coordination of central bank policy}, journal = {Journal of International Money and Finance}, volume = {67(2016)}, year = {2018}, pages = {13-24}, author = {Charles Engel} } @article {1299246, title = {Commentary: International Coordination}, journal = {Asia Economic Policy Conference, Policy Challenges in a diverging Global Economy}, year = {2018}, pages = {15-22}, author = {Charles Engel} } @article {1299242, title = {International Coordination}, journal = {NBER Working Paper Series}, volume = {NBER Working Paper 21878}, year = {2018}, author = {Jeffrey A. 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