Forecasting Brexit: Austerity-induced Local Public Service Cuts and the Rise of the Far-Right

Abstract:

In this senior thesis project, I investigate whether austerity-induced local public service cuts—such as transport, maintenance, libraries, and other public provisions—motivated UK Independence Party (UKIP) Westminster vote shares and subsequently the Leave vote in the 2016 EU Referendum. I compare my measure of austerity, share of public employees as a proxy for local public service cuts, to Fetzer's (2020) measure for austerity: welfare reform. First, I find that local service cuts between 2010 and 2015 had a statistically significant and notable effect on UKIP electoral vote share in Westminster elections. Secondly, I document how the two key varieties of austerity policy—local public service cuts and welfare reform—measure two different channels of electoral response and therefore cannot be aggregated into the broad term “austerity.” Local public service cuts hit a broader segment of the local community than needs-based welfare reforms, thus generating a wider political response across class, industry and political affiliations. Whereas welfare reform has a higher predictive power in manufacturing constituencies, local public service cuts are not affected by industry-specific disparities. Further, I identify nonwhite population shares as potential mechanisms for how local public service cuts actualised into UKIP votes.